Inputs
Results
Portfolio chart
Yearly summary
Notes
- Expected return is an assumption, not a guarantee.
- Taxes, fees, and return-path volatility are not modeled in this version.
- Compare multiple scenarios before making financial decisions.
FAQ
What is the 4% rule?
It starts with withdrawing a fixed percentage of the initial portfolio, then usually adjusts the amount for inflation. It is a planning rule, not a guarantee.
What does solver mode calculate?
It solves for the maximum initial withdrawal that keeps the portfolio from dropping below your target ending balance over the selected horizon. Solver mode currently works only with fixed-real and fixed-nominal withdrawal rules.
Are taxes and fees included?
No. This model is pre-tax and fee-excluded. Use additional scenario buffers for tax drag and investment costs.
Does this model include sequence-of-returns risk?
No. This version uses a constant average-return model and does not simulate return-path randomness.
How should I compare withdrawal scenarios?
Keep the same horizon and target ending balance, then change one input such as return, inflation, or withdrawal amount. This makes the driver of each result clear.
How to use Withdrawal Simulator effectively
What this calculator does
This page projects a retirement portfolio under a selected withdrawal rule, expected return, inflation rate, horizon, and target ending balance. Use it to compare whether a fixed-real or fixed-nominal withdrawal path stays above the target through the full period.
Withdrawal assumptions
The model uses a constant average return. It does not simulate sequence-of-returns risk, taxes, investment fees, required distributions, or account-specific rules. Treat the result as a planning scenario and add buffers for items outside the model.
Use-case sequence
Start with current portfolio balance, a conservative return, expected inflation, and the retirement horizon. Save that baseline, then change only the withdrawal amount, return, or inflation setting to see which assumption moves the ending balance.
Common mistakes to avoid
Do not compare scenarios with different horizons or target balances unless that is the question. Do not treat the solved maximum withdrawal as a guaranteed safe amount, because bad early market years are not modeled here.
Interpretation guidance
Review the ending balance, depletion timing, and yearly table together. A scenario that survives the horizon with only a small margin may still be fragile if inflation, fees, or early returns are worse than assumed.