Inputs
Results
Portfolio chart
Yearly summary
Notes
- Expected return is an assumption, not a guarantee.
- Taxes, fees, and return-path volatility are not modeled in this version.
- Compare multiple scenarios before making financial decisions.
FAQ
What is the 4% rule?
It starts with withdrawing a fixed percentage of the initial portfolio, then usually adjusts the amount for inflation. It is a planning rule, not a guarantee.
What does solver mode calculate?
It solves for the maximum initial withdrawal that keeps the portfolio from dropping below your target ending balance over the selected horizon. Solver mode currently works only with fixed-real and fixed-nominal withdrawal rules.
Are taxes and fees included?
No. This model is pre-tax and fee-excluded. Use additional scenario buffers for tax drag and investment costs.
Does this model include sequence-of-returns risk?
No. This version uses a constant average-return model and does not simulate return-path randomness.
What should I enter first?
Start with the minimum required inputs shown above the calculate button, then keep optional settings at their defaults for a first pass. After getting a baseline, change one parameter at a time so you can explain which assumption moved the output.
How to use Withdrawal Simulator effectively
What this calculator does
This page is for estimating outcomes by changing inputs in one controlled workflow. The model keeps your focus on variables, not output shape. Start with stable assumptions, then test sensitivity by changing one key input at a time to observe directional impact.
Input meaning and unit policy
Each input has an expected unit and a typical range. For reliable interpretation, check whether you are using the same unit system, period, and base assumptions across all runs. Unit mismatch is the most common source of unexpected drift in numeric results.
Use-case sequence
A practical sequence is: first run with defaults, then create a baseline log, then run one alternative scenario, and finally compare only the changed output metric. This sequence reduces cognitive load and prevents false pattern recognition in early experiments.
Common mistakes to avoid
Avoid changing too many variables at once, mixing incompatible data sources, and interpreting a one-time output without checking robustness. A single contradictory input can flip conclusions, so keep each experiment minimal and document assumptions as part of your note.
Interpretation guidance
Review both magnitude and direction. Direction tells you whether a strategy moves outcomes in the desired direction, while magnitude helps you judge practicality. If both agree, you can proceed; if not, rebuild the baseline and verify constraints before deciding.