Use this page when consecutive outcomes matter
Use Probability Simulator when you need per-outcome frequencies or confidence intervals. Use Expected Value Simulator when the next question is average payoff per trial. Use this page when the real question is “How likely is a run of wins or losses?”
If the setup already names a model and you need exact PMF, CDF, or quantiles, move next to Distributions.
How to use
- Set the single-trial success probability and the total number of trials.
- Choose whether you care about a success streak or a failure streak.
- Read the exact probability card first, then use the simulated longest streak to explain what is typical.
The first cards answer the decision question directly. The table then shows how quickly longer runs become rarer under the same assumptions.
How to read the result
Probability by streak length
FAQ
When should I use this instead of Expected Value Simulator?
Use this page when the question is about consecutive wins or losses. Use Expected Value Simulator when the next question is average value per trial rather than streak behavior.
Why does this page show both exact probability and simulation?
The exact probability answers the main question directly. The simulation helps explain what the longest streak often looks like in repeated runs of the same setup.
Does a long streak mean the underlying probability changed?
Not by itself. Streaks happen naturally in random sequences, especially when the number of trials is large. This page helps you judge whether the observed run is still plausible under the stated probability.
What is the best next page after this one?
Move to Probability Simulator when you want per-outcome frequencies or confidence intervals. Move to Distributions when the model is already named and you need exact PMF, CDF, or quantiles.